Israelis vote Tuesday as war continues

Voters across Israel cast ballots on Tuesday to determine who leads the country through its ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. The vote is the first general election since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, which authorities have called the deadliest for Israel since its founding in 1948. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to retain power, but polls indicate a tight contest with no guaranteed winner.

The political landscape has shifted since the war began. Netanyahu’s Likud party leads a right-wing and religious bloc. He argues that only he can form a government without relying on Israel’s Arab parties, which he views as a risk during wartime. His second pitch is that the military campaigns against Iran and in the region are not yet complete. He needs more time to finish the work started by his current government.

President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week, warning that the United States might have to act alone if Netanyahu loses power. Trump stated, "If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so." Netanyahu has used this support to claim he is the only leader who can work with Washington to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. His campaign slogan emphasizes this choice, stating voters must pick between the right wing or Palestine, or the right wing or a nuclear bomb.

Opposing Netanyahu is a diverse group of parties known as the change bloc. Their common goal is to remove the current prime minister from office. The leading candidate to head this coalition is Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the centrist Yashar party. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews in the Gaza war and served in the war cabinet for the first year of the conflict. He proposes a state inquiry into the intelligence failures that allowed the October 7 attacks, a measure Netanyahu has blocked.

Two new parties are entering the race, each hovering near the threshold for parliamentary seats. Both focus on demanding that ultra-Orthodox men serve in mandatory military service. This issue challenges Netanyahu’s traditional coalition partners. The outcome may depend on voter turnout, particularly among Arab Israelis, who make up about 20% of the population. Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in Baqa al Gharbiya, said many Arab voters feel the last four years were a catastrophe and that they have no hope under the current leadership.

If neither bloc wins a majority of the 120 Knesset seats, the country faces several paths. Parties might switch sides to form a coalition, a process that could take weeks. Alternatively, the change bloc could form a minority government if it wins more seats than the other side, even without an absolute majority. If stalemate persists, Israel will hold new elections. The country held five elections between 2019 and 2022 due to similar deadlocks. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that if politicians stick to their promises, another election is likely.

The results will not be immediate. Counting votes and forming a government can take days or weeks. The election takes place while Israel remains engaged in multi-front wars. Netanyahu’s team has emphasized the existential threat from Iran, posting an AI-generated image of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv on social media. Eisenkot responded to this rhetoric by accusing Netanyahu of relying on fear and threats.