Tehran Talks Open as Riyadh Toll Reaches 13

Thirteen people died and more than 300 were wounded when Houthi rebels struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh earlier this month. The attack marked a sharp escalation in a conflict that has already closed the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that handles about one-fifth of global oil and gas flows. In response, officials from the Mecca Defense Alliance gathered in Tehran on October 26 to negotiate a pause in hostilities.

The Mecca Alliance is a mutual defense pact formed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. Its charter mirrors NATO Article 5, stating that an armed attack against one member counts as an attack against all. The snap meeting in Tehran brings together representatives from these three nations along with Iranian officials. A senior security official in Islamabad told RFE/RL that the group aims to convince Iran to use its influence to stop Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure.

The alliance has prepared a specific incentive to secure Iran’s cooperation. According to the Islamabad official, the partners are ready to propose closer security ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. "The key question is why Iran should comply? The answer is that Saudi Arabia may ask for support from Israel and that will potentially require them to join the Abraham Accords," the official said. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states. Since Turkey already maintains diplomatic relations with Israel, the trio could place this scenario on the table if Tehran refuses to rein in the Houthis.

Beyond the Houthi issue, the meeting addresses the looming threat of renewed fighting between the United States and Iran. Azaz Syed, an analyst based in Islamabad, described the talks as a "last-ditch effort" to convince Iran to accept a negotiated settlement with Washington. He noted that Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir visited Tehran last week to deliver a "last warning" to the Iranian government. "The three partners will ask for an end to Houthi attacks, of course, but the key message is the broader settlement," Syed said. Hamidreza Azizi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, agreed that the immediate priority is preventing the resumption of war between Iran and the United States.

Tensions between Iran and Pakistan have added friction to the diplomatic efforts. Islamabad recently closed two border crossings between Baluchistan and Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan Province. Pakistan also changed its digital declaration procedure for tracking foreign currency remittances related to Iranian exports. Sources indicate that Islamabad suspended operating clearance for Mahan Air, an Iranian airline linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. In retaliation, Iran stopped exporting Liquified Petroleum Gas to Pakistan, a move that sharply raised gas prices for domestic and commercial consumers. Pakistan imports approximately 7,000 metric tons of LPG from Iran daily.

Iranian envoy to Islamabad Reza Amiri Moghadam said in a social media post that consultations are under way to address cross-border trade issues. He noted that several hundred trucks carrying LPG have crossed the Rimdan border into Gabd on the Pakistani side but have remained unloaded for several weeks. This backlog continues to complicate the movement of goods between the two countries.

Rabia Akhtar, a professor of international relations at the University of Lahore, characterized the Tehran meeting as an attempt at regional crisis management rather than the creation of a new security structure. "Nobody at that table really benefits from another regional war," Akhtar said. She added that if the participants can establish an understanding on restraint regarding Saudi security and Houthi actions, that would be a meaningful outcome.

Azizi of the International Crisis Group said the meeting could help reduce tensions by keeping communication channels open. However, he pointed out that the main problem remains unresolved: Iran seeks credible security guarantees against renewed attacks, while the regional mediators have limited ability to influence Washington's decisions.